The AI stock trade remains alive on Wall Street, though investors are becoming more selective about which companies may emerge as leaders heading into 2026. While some tech stocks have faced recent setbacks, others are fueling renewed optimism, keeping the AI market narrative intact.
Tech stocks have experienced volatility in recent weeks. Concerns over funding for Oracle’s $10 billion data center project and construction delays at CoreWeave have added pressure to AI-related equities. Investors are now closely analyzing which firms are likely to succeed and which may struggle under scrutiny.
“I do believe these are all hyper-valid concerns for the theme, and with the market now breaking out the ‘scrutiny scalpel’ we are finally seeing appropriate ‘winners and losers’ dispersion, and that’s a good thing,” said Charlie McElligott, equity derivatives analyst at Nomura Securities.
Despite these challenges, strong earnings from Micron Technology sparked a rebound in AI trades. The memory chipmaker beat Wall Street estimates on first-quarter revenue and earnings per share, largely due to high demand from AI applications. McElligott compared Micron’s results to Nvidia’s earnings in May 2023, which had acted as a catalyst for the AI boom, suggesting that AI growth still has room to expand.
Investors are keeping a close watch on potential funding risks following a Financial Times report that Blue Owl Capital would not support Oracle’s data center project. These concerns are especially significant given the market concentration among the largest tech companies in the S&P 500. Analysts note that a small group of stocks drives a large portion of index growth and earnings.
Goldman Sachs forecasts more than 12% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, largely supported by seven major tech players: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta. Together, these companies account for roughly a quarter of the index’s earnings. The “Magnificent Seven” have gained an average of 21% this year, compared with a 16% rise for the broader S&P 500.
Market observers expect increased differentiation among these leading stocks in the coming year. Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, predicts a significant bifurcation within the group. He highlighted Alphabet as a favorite, citing the growth potential of Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence product. Conversely, he expressed caution regarding Oracle, suggesting that companies with heavy AI spending but unclear financial sustainability could face challenges.
Oracle stock, however, jumped 7% on Friday following news that it would host and operate TikTok’s U.S. operations. Despite this gain, the stock remains down 40% from its September peak. Some Wall Street analysts see the pullback as a buying opportunity. John DiFucci, analyst at Guggenheim, noted that Oracle’s cloud infrastructure offers superior performance at a lower cost while remaining profitable, giving it a competitive advantage.
Strategists continue to highlight broader economic factors supporting AI stocks. Looser monetary and fiscal policies, combined with ongoing AI adoption, are expected to bolster equities next year. UBS Global Wealth Management analyst Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi emphasized that while investors may be selective about individual companies, the overall AI story remains intact. UBS projects the S&P 500 could reach 7,700 by the end of 2026, reflecting a 13% potential upside from current levels.
Experts stress that company fundamentals remain strong, with no clear signs of an investment bubble. They believe AI-driven growth, especially from leading tech players, will continue to support the market as investors differentiate between high-performing and underperforming stocks.
In summary, the AI stock trade in 2026 is poised to remain a central theme for investors. Strong earnings from select companies, combined with continued AI adoption and supportive economic policies, suggest that the sector still offers opportunities. While scrutiny is increasing, Wall Street analysts are confident that the AI market’s overall trajectory remains solid as investors prepare for another year of selective growth.