As the war in Gaza continues, discussions about the territory’s postwar future are intensifying. The focus extends beyond reconstruction to a critical question: Who will govern Gaza? Various stakeholders—Israel, Hamas, Arab states, and international bodies—offer different governance models, but consensus remains elusive.
On February 21, 2025, Gulf Arab leaders met in Riyadh with their Egyptian and Jordanian counterparts to discuss the U.S. proposal to administer Gaza under American oversight while relocating its Palestinian population. The meeting, a precursor to the March 4 Arab League summit in Cairo, ended without a joint statement, raising questions about whether Arab nations can present a united stance.
The Heavy Toll of War
The latest war in Gaza began after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, which left 1,200 people dead and around 250 hostages taken. Israel responded with a military operation that, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), has resulted in over 48,000 Palestinian deaths and the displacement of 90% of Gaza’s 2.1 million residents.
The February 2025 Interim Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (IRDNA), conducted by the UN, EU, and World Bank, reported:
- 292,000 homes destroyed or damaged
- 95% of hospitals non-operational
- An 83% contraction of Gaza’s local economy
- Severe destruction of agricultural land and food production systems
With the ceasefire set to expire on March 1, the urgency to establish a clear postwar framework has never been higher.
Four Competing Governance Models for Gaza
The governance debate revolves around four primary models:
1. Weakened Hamas Rule
After 17 years of control, Hamas is fragmented and has lost significant support. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research reports that Hamas’ approval rating fell from 64% in June 2024 to 39% in September. However, total eradication of Hamas is unlikely, and international donors have refused to fund reconstruction unless an alternative leadership emerges.
2. Israeli Reoccupation
Some Israeli officials support a full-scale military reoccupation of Gaza, arguing that only direct control can prevent future attacks. However, this plan faces strong international opposition and risks jeopardizing Israel’s relations with Egypt and Jordan. A Pew Research Center survey (May 2024) found that 40% of Israelis support Israeli rule over Gaza, but critics warn that long-term military governance would be costly and unsustainable.
3. International Mandate
Several proposals call for UN involvement, including the deployment of international peacekeepers or a temporary UN trusteeship over Gaza and the West Bank. However, logistical challenges, global reluctance to bear financial and security burdens, and Hamas’ continued presence complicate this approach.
4. Reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) Rule
The most widely discussed alternative is placing Gaza under the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the West Bank. However, the PA faces criticism for corruption and inefficiency, and many Gazans distrust its leadership. While some Arab states support a revitalized PA as a stabilizing force, Israeli officials doubt its ability to maintain security.
The Role of Regional and Global Powers
The battle for Gaza’s future isn’t just internal—it involves powerful international players. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE are maneuvering to shape postwar governance, while the United States, Israel, and the United Nations push their own agendas.
U.S. Policy and Controversy
A key issue is the Trump administration’s proposal, which suggests forced displacement of Gazans to allow a U.S.-led reconstruction effort. While 70% of Israelis support this plan, Arab states, including Jordan and Egypt, strongly oppose it. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has backed resuming military action, further deepening tensions in the region.
The Egyptian Alternative: A Regional-Led Reconstruction
Egypt has emerged as a key player, advocating for a non-displacement reconstruction model. According to state-run Al-Ahram, Egypt’s proposal includes:
- Creating “secure areas” in Gaza to house displaced Palestinians
- Using Egyptian and international firms to rebuild infrastructure
- Establishing a transitional governing body led by neutral technocrats, excluding Hamas
While Hamas has hinted at administrative withdrawal, its refusal to disarm remains a major obstacle. Israel insists that any postwar agreement must eliminate Hamas’ military capabilities, making a negotiated settlement difficult.
Financial Challenges: Who Will Pay for Gaza’s Reconstruction?
Rebuilding Gaza will require an estimated $53 billion, with at least $20 billion needed in the first three years. However, previous international rebuilding efforts, like the 2014 Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (GRM), failed due to bureaucracy, lack of funds, and Israeli security restrictions. Without strong international donor commitments, even the most well-intentioned governance models may collapse.
Security Concerns: A Key Sticking Point
Security remains a major challenge for any postwar governance plan. Israeli officials insist on maintaining a military presence in Gaza, a move likely to provoke regional opposition. Alternatives like Arab peacekeeping forces or an expanded international security mandate remain contentious, as no party is eager to assume the burden.
A Contested Road Ahead
Gaza’s future remains uncertain, caught between competing governance models, financial obstacles, and regional power struggles. The outcome will have far-reaching consequences for the Middle East, with critical questions still unresolved:
- Will Hamas fully relinquish control, or will it retain influence in a diminished role?
- Can an Arab-backed transitional government gain credibility?
- Will international donors commit the necessary funds for reconstruction?
- Can a long-term security arrangement satisfy both Israel and Palestinian factions?
The Path Forward
Regardless of which governance model prevails, immediate humanitarian aid must accompany long-term rebuilding efforts. More importantly, Gaza’s people must be directly involved in shaping their future. As diplomatic efforts accelerate and the March 1 ceasefire deadline looms, finding a viable solution remains a global imperative.
For more updates on Gaza’s postwar future, visit Daljoog News.