MCX gold prices fell on Thursday, September 11, as traders booked profits ahead of crucial US inflation data. The decline came after prices recently touched record highs, with weak spot demand and a stronger dollar adding pressure.
At around 4:15 p.m., MCX Gold October futures slipped 0.23 percent to ₹1,08,740 per 10 grams. Meanwhile, MCX Silver December futures inched up 0.10 percent to ₹1,25,307 per kilogram. The contrasting movements reflect growing caution in precious metals ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Gold prices had surged to an all-time high of ₹1,09,840 per 10 grams on September 9. However, over the past two sessions, they have dropped by more than ₹1,000, or nearly 1 percent, as investors trimmed positions in the absence of fresh triggers. Analysts said the rally has created a sense of demand fatigue in the physical market.
Despite the pullback, expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week continue to provide a floor for prices. Market participants are betting on a 25 basis point reduction at the September 17 meeting, as recent economic data highlights deepening strains in the American jobs market. Revised employment figures show the US economy created about 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously reported.
The immediate focus, however, is on the US CPI numbers due later today. According to a Reuters poll, inflation likely rose 0.3 percent month-on-month in August, compared with a 0.2 percent increase in July. On an annual basis, consumer prices are expected to rise 2.9 percent versus 2.7 percent in July. Any upside surprise could dampen expectations of aggressive Fed easing, putting renewed pressure on bullion.
Commodity experts expect volatility to dominate gold and silver in the coming sessions. Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research noted that fluctuations in the dollar index, geopolitical concerns, and inflation data will drive market direction. “Gold is expected to trade in the range of $3,510–3,770 per troy ounce, while silver may move between $39.10–44.00 per troy ounce this week,” he said.
Jain suggested investors consider booking profits in gold ahead of the CPI data release. He advised buying silver near ₹1,24,600 with a stop loss below ₹1,23,500 for potential targets of ₹1,25,700–1,26,600.
Technical charts also highlight key levels to watch. Jain pointed out that gold has support at $3,655–3,634 and resistance at $3,700–3,714 per troy ounce. In rupee terms, MCX gold has support at ₹1,08,550–1,08,000 and resistance at ₹1,09,440–1,10,000. For silver, support lies at ₹1,24,400–1,23,500, while resistance is at ₹1,26,300–1,27,000.
Rahul Kalantri, Vice President of commodities at Mehta Equities, also highlighted similar levels. He said gold is supported at $3,615–3,590, with resistance at $3,660–3,675. Silver support stands at $40.90–40.70, while resistance is placed at $41.40–41.65. In rupee terms, Kalantri expects gold support at ₹1,08,340–1,07,740 and resistance between ₹1,09,450–1,09,950. Silver, he added, has support at ₹1,23,550–1,22,750 and resistance at ₹1,25,950–1,26,740.
Overall, analysts suggest caution for investors in the short term. With prices still near record highs and multiple macroeconomic events lined up, the market could see wide swings. While a Fed rate cut next week may provide long-term support for gold, immediate sentiment will hinge on the US CPI numbers and the dollar’s movement.
For now, experts recommend profit booking in gold while keeping a close eye on technical levels and global economic signals. Silver, on the other hand, may present selective buying opportunities at lower levels.
