Nigeria is facing two major problems that affect its progress—unemployment and unreliable population data. These two challenges are closely connected and make it hard for the country to plan for services like jobs, education, and healthcare.
In April 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) introduced a new way of calculating unemployment. After this change, the unemployment rate fell from 33.3 percent in late 2020 to 4.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023. The rate then changed slightly to 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2023, 5.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, and 4.3 percent in the second quarter of 2024.
The government welcomed these new figures and said they show progress in job creation. Semiu Adeniran, the head of the NBS, explained that the new method counts people with part-time jobs as employed. He said the method follows global standards set by the International Labour Organization and should have been used earlier.
However, the new data has not been accepted by everyone. The Nigerian Labour Congress called the figures false and said they do not reflect the daily struggles of most citizens. Many Nigerians still face low pay, poor working conditions, and unstable jobs.
Other experts are also concerned. They fear that the government might stop focusing on creating real jobs because the data looks too good. If the numbers are not accurate, the government may make poor decisions or stop trying to solve the problem. This shows the importance of having clear and honest data.
Another big issue in Nigeria is that no one knows the true population of the country. The last full census was in 2006. It said Nigeria had around 140 million people. Since then, no official count has been done. Some people now use this number and add a 3.2 percent annual growth rate to guess the current population. Others rely on estimates from the United Nations, which says Nigeria may have more than 200 million people today.
Many efforts to hold a new census have failed. These failures are due to poor funding, political influence, and false figures. This problem has existed for decades. In 1962, Nigeria’s first post-independence census was canceled after officials found that some numbers were inflated for political gain. That census had recorded 45 million people with a heavy bias toward some regions.
In 2006, modern tools such as GPS, satellite images, and fingerprint systems were used to make the count more accurate. But since then, only small updates have been made. The National Population Commission does not usually share the results of these updates with the public, creating doubts about their reliability.
This lack of clear population data creates a major planning problem. Governments use population numbers to decide where to build schools, hospitals, and roads. Without trusted data, these plans often fail. Poor data also makes it hard to allocate funds fairly among regions.
There are also questions about the independence of Nigeria’s data institutions. Many people believe that politicians try to control population and labor data for their own benefit. This leads to a lack of trust. Accurate data affects voting, funding, and national development. When these numbers are wrong, it harms the entire system.
To fix these problems, Nigeria needs a new national census that is open, fair, and accurate. It also needs better methods to count workers and understand the labor force. The government must invest in strong data systems and keep them free from political control.
Without reliable data, Nigeria cannot plan for the future. Its economy, democracy, and people all suffer. Fixing this data crisis is urgent and necessary for real progress.
