Costa Rica goes to the polls on Sunday as the nation grapples with escalating drug-related violence that has shaken its image as a Central American haven of stability. The presidential race is shaping up as a showdown over law-and-order policies, with right-wing candidate Laura Fernandez widely expected to prevail.
According to Daljoog News analysis, Fernandez’s popularity is tied closely to outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves, whose aggressive rhetoric on crime has resonated with voters despite a 50 percent rise in the country’s murder rate over the past six years. Her platform echoes tough measures from El Salvador, signaling a potential shift in Costa Rica’s approach to public security.
The election comes at a moment of broader regional shifts. Latin American voters have recently leaned toward leaders promising strong stances on organized crime, leaving traditional centrist and leftist parties struggling to maintain influence.
What Happened?
Laura Fernandez, 39, leads the presidential contest representing Chaves’s Social Democratic Party. Polls indicate she could secure the 40 percent threshold needed to win outright, avoiding a runoff against her 19 competitors. Fernandez also seeks to secure a parliamentary majority, aiming for 40 out of 57 seats in the Legislative Assembly to pursue reforms in the judiciary.
Fernandez served as both planning minister and presidential chief of staff under Chaves, who avoided direct blame for rising homicides by criticizing judicial leniency. In campaign rallies, Fernandez emphasized harsher punishments, a state of emergency in crime-ridden areas, and construction of a maximum-security prison inspired by El Salvador’s controversial CECOT facility.
Residents in crime-affected areas have voiced support. Jessenia Ordonez, living in Alajuelita near San Jose, said Fernandez is appealing because she is “close to the president” and promises action against theft and drug sales among youth.
Why This Matters
Costa Rica has shifted from being a transit point for cocaine to a logistics hub infiltrated by Mexican and Colombian cartels. Violence has increasingly spilled into dense urban settlements, with shootouts in “precarios” disrupting daily life and stoking public fear.
A Fernandez presidency could mark a dramatic turn in Costa Rican policy, emphasizing punitive measures over social programs. Her election may also align the country with broader rightward trends in Latin America, where voters have prioritized security and anti-corruption agendas in recent elections.
The stakes are high: voters are not only deciding on leadership but also the future balance between civil liberties and security enforcement in a country historically known for democratic stability.
What Analysts or Officials Are Saying
Analysts note that Fernandez’s approach mirrors that of President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, who has drawn praise and criticism for his iron-fisted crackdown on gangs. Bukele has detained tens of thousands of suspects since 2022, many of whom were later released, highlighting the fine line between aggressive security policy and human rights concerns.
Political opponents warn that adopting similar measures in Costa Rica could undermine democratic norms. Left-wing candidate Ariel Robles questioned whether the nation is moving from “dreaming of being the Switzerland of Central America to dreaming of being El Salvador.” Centrist Alvaro Ramos cautioned that “modern dictatorships don’t always arrive with tanks,” signaling apprehension about concentrated executive power.
Daljoog News Analysis
Daljoog News analysis shows that Fernandez’s rise reflects voter frustration with both crime and institutional inefficiencies. While her tough-on-crime platform may satisfy security-focused constituents, it carries risks for human rights and judicial independence.
The candidate’s alignment with Chávez positions her as a continuity figure in domestic politics, but her admiration for Bukele-style policies may signal an embrace of more authoritarian methods. In the short term, these measures could reduce crime rates, but long-term effects on governance, civil liberties, and regional relations remain uncertain.
Costa Rica’s image as a peaceful, tourist-friendly country is also at stake. A shift toward heavy-handed security policies could affect international perceptions, foreign investment, and tourism—critical sectors for the nation’s economy.
What Happens Next
Sunday’s vote is expected to deliver a decisive result, with Fernandez likely to take office in the coming months. Legislative elections held simultaneously could provide her party with the leverage to implement judicial reforms and enhance state control over crime-affected regions.
Observers will closely monitor early enforcement measures, including the proposed state of emergency and expansion of high-security prison facilities. International organizations may also assess whether Costa Rica’s approach balances security needs with civil rights protections.
For residents, the election represents more than a political contest—it is a referendum on safety, governance, and Costa Rica’s identity in a region increasingly defined by security challenges and shifting political tides.