Southeast Asian countries have been warned about the dangers of aligning too closely with the United States in its ongoing tariff war with China. Zheng Yongnian, a leading Chinese political expert, said such a move could isolate these nations from China and threaten their growth prospects.
Speaking at the 3rd China-Asean Economic Relations Seminar at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Zheng explained that the US’s support for Asean’s re-industrialization is not its true goal. Instead, the US aims to bring manufacturing jobs back home. Meanwhile, China, he argued, is better positioned to support Asean’s industrial goals.
Asean Faces Difficult Choices in US-China Trade War
Zheng warned that poor management of economic ties with China could leave Asean members facing major setbacks.
“If Asean countries lean too much toward the US, they risk stalled industrial growth and economic isolation from China,” Zheng said. “The US is unlikely to assist them in achieving true industrialization.”
Countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand now face tough decisions. They must choose between weakening their strong trade ties with China or risking heavy tariffs from the United States.
Tariff Pressures Mount on Asean Members
Several Asean economies, especially Vietnam, have served as key routes for Chinese goods entering the US market.
Under current US policies, Asean countries face tariffs between 10% and 49%, though these have been delayed until July. In contrast, Chinese goods entering the US have been subject to tariffs as high as 145% since April 10.
Washington has also urged Asean countries to tackle “transshipment” issues, accusing some firms of rerouting Chinese goods to avoid tariffs. Vietnam, facing tariffs of up to 46%, has already taken steps to crack down on such practices.
China Issues Strong Warning Against Siding with the US
Beijing has warned Southeast Asian nations not to make deals that harm China’s interests.
“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” the Ministry of Commerce stated. “If this happens, China will resolutely take countermeasures.”
Despite concerns about China’s potential isolation, Zheng dismissed such fears. “A country doing business with the whole world cannot be isolated,” he said.
China’s Role in Asean Industrialization
Zheng emphasized that China’s contribution to Asean goes beyond trade.
China helps Asean’s industrialization through direct investments, building industrial parks, supply chain integration, and transferring technology.
According to the Rhodium Group, Chinese investments accounted for 70% of total foreign direct investment from China into Asean last year, mostly in manufacturing.
Surplus Chinese Goods Could Flood Southeast Asia
There are growing concerns in Southeast Asia that the US tariffs will force Chinese goods to flood their markets.
In April, the US raised tariffs on Chinese imports to around 156%, while China responded with 125% tariffs on US goods.
With neither side backing down, the trade war continues to escalate, raising fears of wider economic disruption across the region.
Zheng Criticizes US Tariff Strategy
Zheng criticized the US for using high tariffs as a bargaining tool.
He said it was wrong to pressure China through intimidation, adding that this strategy would not succeed.
“China has more room to maneuver and is not in a rush to negotiate,” he said. “We should wait and see the results of US-Japan talks before making any moves.”
Internal Reforms Could Strengthen China
Despite the trade pressures, Zheng remains optimistic about China’s future.
He said external challenges could push China to speed up reforms, boost domestic demand, and develop its central and western regions.
“Pressure from the US will lead to internal growth, not defeat,” he added.
Southeast Asia Urged to Stay Cautious
Zheng concluded by advising Asean leaders to be cautious.
He warned that while some countries might feel tempted to side with the US, many others will likely choose to distance themselves from Washington as the trade war drags on.