Reform UK won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes, narrowly defeating Labour. The tight result has sparked concern and reflection within the Labour Party. Former Labour minister Harriet Harman says hidden support for Reform, especially in traditional Labour areas, played a key role.
The by-election, held in a newly created constituency, marked one of the closest election results in UK history. Reform UK’s Sarah Pochin won with a razor-thin margin over Labour’s Karen Shore, overturning what was once a strong Labour seat.
What Happened in Runcorn?
The Runcorn and Helsby seat was formed in 2024. In last year’s general election, former Labour MP Mike Amesbury held the area with a 34.8% majority. However, Amesbury resigned after a physical altercation with a constituent during a night out.
Reform UK’s win now replaces Labour in a place it once dominated. Sarah Pochin’s victory highlights a major shift in voter behavior.
The Role of ‘Shy’ Reform Voters
Labour peer Baroness Harriet Harman addressed the surprising result on the Electoral Dysfunction podcast. She said many voters may have quietly supported Reform UK without openly expressing it. These so-called “shy voters” likely contributed to the unexpected outcome.
“If we’d known it would be so close, I would have personally spent more time there to gain those six votes,” she said. “There’s a real level of frustration.”
Baroness Harman explained that these shy voters, especially in traditional Labour zones, made it difficult to predict the final result. She also called for a deeper look at the election, saying Labour needs to better understand what happened.
Reform UK Grows Nationally
The Runcorn result was not an isolated event. Reform UK also performed strongly in the local elections held at the same time. The party took control of eight councils—out of 18 contested by the Conservatives—and won two mayoral races. These are the first mayoral victories for Reform UK, signaling a rise in national influence.
This expansion suggests the party is gaining real momentum. Reform’s success in local elections and mayoral contests shows a growing base of support beyond one-off wins.
Labour’s Response and Internal Debate
Baroness Harman said Labour needs to focus more on its delivery and its message. While the party is taking steps like rolling out free breakfast clubs and raising the minimum wage, she said these changes are not being clearly communicated to the public.
“Farage and Reform have no delivery yet, but they have a strong message,” she said. “The government is delivering, but it lacks a powerful story to tell.”
This contrast, she explained, leaves voters feeling unsure about Labour’s progress. She believes a better narrative is needed to show how policies connect to people’s daily lives.
Pressure from Within the Party
Baroness Harman also noted that socially conservative Labour MPs—often referred to as “Blue Labour”—may now push harder for tough stances on immigration and other sensitive topics. The close election result could embolden them to ask for policy shifts that reflect voter concerns.
Some in the party have already expressed frustration over issues such as winter fuel payments and cost-of-living aid. While Harman does not expect any major splits in Labour, she said internal debates will likely become louder.
“I don’t think this will lead to instability,” she said, “but it does show we need to listen more closely to voters.”
What It Means for the Future
The Runcorn by-election is the closest since 1945. It has revealed hidden voter trends and sparked new debates in both Labour and Reform UK. Reform’s ability to flip a strong Labour seat shows it can no longer be ignored as a fringe party.
As the UK prepares for future general elections, both major parties will need to adapt. Labour must improve its messaging and connection with voters. Reform must prove it can govern, not just campaign.