Voters in Australia and Canada have rejected leaders seen as close to Donald Trump, signaling a shift to the political left. In Australia, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese secured a strong second-term victory. In Canada, the Liberals returned to power under a new leader. In both cases, conservative parties trying to follow Trump-style politics lost public support.
These events show a clear trend: right-wing leaders who echo Trump’s approach are facing backlash. Now, political observers are asking what this means for New Zealand’s future.
Australia Rejects Trump-Style Politics
Australian voters delivered a major win for the Labor Party in the recent federal election. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was re-elected with a solid majority. In his speech, he said voters had chosen “Australian values.” Though not said directly, it was a rejection of the political style linked to Donald Trump.
Peter Dutton, leader of the conservative Liberal Party, had a poor result. He even lost his own seat. His campaign was marked by culture war themes and a hardline approach, which many saw as “Trump-lite.” Just months earlier, polls had predicted a win for his party. But that changed fast.
By March, public opinion shifted. Voters were wary of divisive messages. As a result, Labor surged in the polls and performed even better than expected on election day. Many cities turned away from the Liberals, leaving the party with little support in urban areas.
Similar Shift in Canada
A similar pattern happened in Canada. In January, the Conservative Party was ahead in polls. The ruling Liberals, under Justin Trudeau, were expected to lose. But things changed when Trudeau stepped down. Mark Carney, a respected economist, became the new Liberal leader.
At the same time, Donald Trump angered Canadians by calling for Canada to become the “51st state” of the US. He also announced new tariffs that would hurt Canada’s economy.
This created a turning point. The Liberals quickly rose in the polls. By late April, they had enough support to win their fourth straight election. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had embraced Trump-like tactics. He attacked “woke” ideas and used nicknames for rivals. But when Trump’s policies began to harm Canada directly, Poilievre lost momentum.
Canadians chose to protect their economy and national pride. The result? A win for the center-left, and another warning sign for right-wing leaders trying to copy Trump.
The “Trump Slump” Spreads — But Not Everywhere
This pattern is being called the “Trump slump.” It refers to conservative parties losing ground after aligning with Trump’s style or ideas. Australia and Canada are two major examples. In both cases, Trump’s actions caused voters to rally behind their own national values.
However, the trend isn’t global. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party gained support in the last election. This happened even with Elon Musk, a Trump supporter, backing them. In the UK, the Reform UK party is rising in the polls while Labour’s support is slipping.
Still, in other European countries like Norway and Denmark, center-left governments are seeing gains. Norway’s Labour Party, once trailing badly, has jumped back into the lead. Denmark’s Social Democrats have also seen a small polling boost.
What This Means for New Zealand
New Zealand has its own lessons to learn. The country has a right-wing coalition government led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. So far, polling suggests it could win a second term. But this could change quickly.
Some members of the government, like ACT Party leaders, have pushed hardline policies such as the Treaty Principles Bill. Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, often uses culture war rhetoric. While this may appeal to some voters, it could backfire — especially if people begin to see similarities with Trump-style politics.
At the same time, Labour’s support has weakened since early 2024. If the opposition wants to follow the Australian and Canadian examples, it will need to focus on national unity, fairness, and economic stability — not polarizing issues.
A Clear Warning for Conservative Leaders
The big takeaway is clear. Conservative leaders in democratic nations should avoid copying Donald Trump’s political style. Voters are showing they care more about their own national interests than about US political trends.
Trump’s “America First” policies are hurting trade, damaging alliances, and creating fear about the future. For allies like Canada, Australia, and possibly New Zealand, this makes voters look for stability and leadership that puts their own country first — not Trump’s version of it.
Moving Forward
As global elections continue in 2025, more countries may face this test. Will voters accept Trump-inspired politics, or will they reject it in favor of local values and leaders who prioritize unity?
So far, the results in Australia and Canada suggest that tying your political brand to Donald Trump may be a losing strategy. Voters seem to want something different: fairness, stability, and leadership that focuses on their own country’s future.
