The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) represents a critical effort by regional and international actors to stabilize Somalia and support its government in overcoming decades of conflict. Established to succeed the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), ATMIS carries the responsibility of ensuring peace, security, and a smooth transition to Somali-led security control. However, the mission now confronts significant challenges that threaten its effectiveness and the broader stability of the Horn of Africa.
ATMIS was created as part of a strategic shift in peacekeeping operations in Somalia, marking a new phase with an initial plan to withdraw by December 2024. This plan was based on the hope that Somali security forces would develop sufficient capacity to maintain stability independently. Unfortunately, escalating attacks by the insurgent group al-Shabaab and continued struggles by Somali forces to contain the insurgency have forced an extension of ATMIS’s mandate to December 2029. This extension highlights the complexity and difficulty of stabilizing Somalia after years of conflict.
The mission’s mandate includes deploying troops to secure key areas, protecting civilian populations, supporting political processes, and assisting Somali forces with training and intelligence. Member states contributing troops to ATMIS include Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Egypt. These countries provide not only ground forces but also crucial air and intelligence capabilities. Yet, since 2017, ATMIS has experienced a withdrawal of about 8,000 African Union troops, a reduction that troop-contributing countries are now proposing to reverse in response to growing security threats.
Funding is one of the most pressing challenges facing ATMIS. The mission depends heavily on international donors to cover operational costs, with the European Union historically being the largest contributor since AMISOM’s inception in 2007. The United States has also played a significant role, covering roughly 25% of the United Nations stabilization budget in Somalia over the last 18 years. Despite this support, ATMIS is currently in debt by over 12 billion shillings to troop-contributing countries, and the funding gap continues to widen.
Tensions have arisen between the United States and its European allies regarding the financial model for supporting ATMIS. The U.S. government has criticized proposals that would increase UN-assessed contributions to cover over 90% of the mission’s expenses, arguing that such arrangements unfairly burden American taxpayers. The Biden administration blocked a plan in late 2024 that would have seen the UN pay 75% of the approximately 21.5 billion shillings required for the mission’s next fiscal year. Instead, the U.S. insists that the UN’s role should be limited to troop reimbursements, not full operational funding. This disagreement has contributed to delays in securing essential funds and risks undermining the mission’s sustainability.
The stalled negotiations come at a dangerous moment as al-Shabaab has intensified its attacks. Recent offensives in regions such as Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle have resulted in the deaths of military officers, government officials, and civilians. In March alone, a series of coordinated attacks targeted hotels, government motorcades, and UN compounds in Mogadishu, signaling that the security situation remains volatile. Troop-contributing countries are calling for a restoration of withdrawn forces and an increase in air and intelligence support, which would require an estimated two billion shillings monthly to implement.
In the face of these challenges, some alternative funding sources are being explored. Countries like Japan and South Korea have expressed interest in supporting ATMIS, and the African Union Peace Fund is expected to contribute. Nevertheless, these pledges fall short of bridging the financial gap left by major donors. Experts emphasize the need for African governments to increase their financial and logistical contributions to ensure the mission’s long-term viability.
International relations scholars point to the broader implications of the mission’s success or failure. The Horn of Africa is a strategic region where instability in Somalia risks spilling over into neighboring countries, threatening regional security and global interests. Observers warn that abandoning the mission now would echo past failures seen in other conflict zones, with far-reaching consequences.
Furthermore, the shift toward more bilateral arrangements with troop contributors presents operational challenges. Without a unified command structure, coordination between forces may become disorganized, impeding efforts to achieve strategic objectives. Maintaining cohesion among diverse troop contingents is vital to ATMIS’s ability to respond effectively to threats and protect civilians.
Despite the obstacles, the African Union Transition Mission remains a cornerstone of international efforts to stabilize Somalia. Its fate depends not only on securing adequate funding but also on renewed political commitment from both African nations and the global community. The current deadlock at the United Nations Security Council over funding is a test of this commitment, with the future of peace in Somalia hanging in the balance.