Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo are rising after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi remarked on Taiwan in November. China has already taken trade measures against Japan, prompting analysts to examine what levers Tokyo might hold if the relationship worsens.
China’s latest move came on Wednesday, when Beijing announced an anti-dumping investigation into a critical chipmaking material imported from Japan. This follows previous steps, including bans on Japanese seafood and restrictions on dual-use goods with potential military applications.
Despite these measures, analysts and trade groups report that overall trade between Japan and China remains steady for now. However, China relies heavily on certain Japanese industrial goods, particularly materials used in semiconductor manufacturing, making it vulnerable to potential Japanese countermeasures.
Observers note that Tokyo could respond with export controls of its own, potentially limiting the flow of high-tech materials that China needs for chip production and other advanced industries. Such measures could serve as leverage in a prolonged political dispute, though experts caution that any escalation could disrupt global supply chains.
Trade organizations emphasize that both countries benefit from strong economic ties. Japan is a major supplier of specialized industrial materials, while China represents a significant market for Japanese exports. The interplay of these interests complicates any potential use of trade restrictions as a political tool.
Beijing’s response to Takaichi’s Taiwan comments signals growing sensitivity over foreign statements regarding Taiwan. Analysts suggest that Tokyo must carefully weigh the economic consequences of its actions against the political benefits of taking a firm stance on regional security issues.
China’s restrictions on dual-use goods and the anti-dumping probe are seen as part of a broader strategy to assert influence over Japan while testing Tokyo’s willingness to escalate trade measures. Meanwhile, Japanese officials are likely evaluating which industries could be used as leverage without causing excessive harm to their own economy.
In addition to semiconductor materials, Japan’s technology and industrial sectors could play a key role in any trade-related negotiations. Limiting exports of these products could pressure China, though it would require careful management to avoid retaliation and maintain regional stability.
Experts highlight that Japan’s options are constrained by global trade norms and the interdependence of the two economies. Still, Tokyo has tools it can deploy selectively, such as controlling the export of specialized materials critical to high-tech manufacturing.
As both countries navigate the diplomatic fallout from Takaichi’s remarks, analysts say the situation underscores the delicate balance between political statements and economic interdependence. Any significant escalation in trade restrictions could have far-reaching effects on global technology supply chains and regional security dynamics.
For now, Japan-China trade continues with caution, but both governments appear prepared to use economic levers if tensions persist, illustrating the complex interplay between diplomacy, trade, and national security in East Asia.
