Airfares from Europe to the United States are falling fast. This trend is mainly due to fewer travelers coming from Western Europe. New data shows that travel from this region dropped 4.4% in May compared to last year. Overall international visits to the U.S. were down 2.8% in the same period.
Experts say the drop is expected to continue through July. Travel bookings for that month are already down 13% compared to last year, according to aviation analytics firm OAG.
The decline started earlier this year. Since March, fewer Europeans have been planning trips to the U.S. Political tensions, a strong U.S. dollar, and stricter border rules have all played a role. In March alone, travel from Western Europe to the U.S. dropped 17%.
As a result, the price of flying between the two continents is falling. Data from Cirium shows that average economy round-trip fares between the U.S. and Europe dropped 7% in the first quarter. Some routes, like Atlanta to London, saw prices fall by more than 50%.
This summer, prices are down about 10% from last year. Travel app Hopper reports that average round-trip fares to Europe are now about $817. That’s close to 2019 prices before the pandemic changed travel patterns.
The drop in European demand is a challenge for airlines. Aran Ryan, a travel expert at Tourism Economics, said fewer European passengers and slower growth in U.S. travel to Europe will make 2025 a hard year for transatlantic profits.
Several major airlines are already feeling the pressure. Germany’s Lufthansa and Air France KLM are both seeing weaker demand. Lufthansa’s CEO expects slower activity in the third quarter. Air France KLM is cutting ticket prices to fill empty seats on transatlantic flights.
Even U.S. airlines are affected. United Airlines reported a 6% drop in bookings from Europe in the first quarter. However, strong demand from Americans flying to Europe helped make up for the losses. Delta Air Lines said 80% of its long-distance travel demand now comes from U.S. passengers. These fares are higher than in other global regions.
Lufthansa said it will now market more of its transatlantic seats to American travelers. Demand from Western Europe had briefly recovered in April, rising 12.1%, but then dropped again in May.
While fewer Europeans are flying to the U.S., more Americans are heading abroad. As of mid-May, international flights from the U.S. were up 4.3% compared to last summer, according to Hopper.
American Airlines also remains positive. At a recent event, CFO Devon May said the company is optimistic about the transatlantic market.
Airlines are now shifting their focus. With Europeans booking fewer trips to the U.S., many carriers are depending more on U.S.-based travelers to fill their planes. This shift may help balance the drop in foreign demand, but experts warn that profits could still fall if the current trend continues.
The long-term impact of this trend remains uncertain. If demand from Western Europe does not pick up, airlines may continue to lower prices. This could benefit travelers looking for cheap tickets but will likely hurt the airlines’ bottom lines.
